To prevent the worst impacts of global heating, we need a whole suite of policy changes. Of them, making carbon pricing predictable is by far the most effective one we know of. Carbon pricing is the most silver bullet-ish policy available.
It’s Silver Bullet-ish
En-ROADS is a transparent, freely-available policy simulation model that provides us with the ability to explore, for ourselves, how various climate solutions would affect outcomes such as global temperature change. The goal in making the model is to frame and support better conversations about how to address the climate crisis. On April 30, 2020, Doug Pritchard of CCL Beaches-East York, Chemical Engineer, and En-ROADS Climate Ambassador led CCL Canada on a tour of the En-ROADS climate solutions simulator.
Impact of 1.2°C of Warming
On June 11, 2020, it was estimated in the En-ROADS simulator that just implementing a highly predictable carbon price would prevent 1.2 °C of global heating by 2100 compared to business as usual. Changing any other single policy in the simulator could prevent up to 0.5°C of global heating by 2100. This makes implementing a highly predictable carbon price by far the most impactful single policy change in preventing global temperature increase in the simulator.
Even if all the signatories to the Paris Agreement reach their respective 2030 emissions-reduction targets, the world would still be on a path to a 3-4°C of warming. Carbon pricing applied on a global basis in combination with progressive climate policy are needed to keep global heating well below 2°C as stipulated in Article 2.1.a of the Agreement.
(Note that this simulator is for the entire globe and not just for Canada.)
Source: CCL Laser Talk, June 2020
This article was previously published in Below2C